Streamflow Forecasts
Northern Water’s Snowpack and Streamflow Comparisons reports show snow-water content comparisons and streamflow forecasts for the watersheds in the Colorado-Big Thompson Project.
Early-season snowpack and runoff estimates suggest that Colorado-Big Thompson Project East Slope tributaries will fare better than West Slope collection systems this year.
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Snowpack on the West Slope is mostly unchanged from last month’s report. Inflows to Lake Granby are still expected to be 82% of average. East of the Continental Divide, conditions have improved considerably and near-normal runoff is expected for some of our watersheds.
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The month of March was not kind to our watersheds. Warm temperatures and a total lack of snowfall combined to deplete our snowpack at a time when it normally continues to grow. Accordingly, our streamflow forecasts have diminished substantially. Comparisons to historic dry years like 1977, 2002 and 2004 are valid.
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May 2012 Streamflow Forecast
April was another bust for mountain snowfall, so our May forecast shows a continued decline in our expected runoff. Many basins are at or near record-low snowpack. It should be noted that streamflow forecast methods do not perform well at the extremes of the historical data ranges.
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Winter at Pinewood Reservoir